5 Tips to Lose Less Betting Sports

    I think we all love betting sports. Maybe that's an exaggeration, but if baseball is America's pastime and football is a religion, sports wagering is the glue that holds it all together. And of course, we all want to win when we bet sports.

    This post is written with the assumption that you understand how American odds work, the concept of vig/juice, and the basic kinds of bets available in most sportsbooks. I plan to have a later blog post detailing how to calculate some useful values, but we aren't there yet.

    I can't tell you how to win. Especially in the major sports. NFL/NBA/MLB markets are pretty efficient. But there are some simple steps you can take to give yourself a fighting chance.

1. Take advantage of sign up bonuses and promotions

    Almost every retail sportsbook (and some sharp ones too) offer a big bonus for signing up. It's a good bet for them that you'll lose it back. Most of these offers require some form of rollover to claim the money as your own, but that's not so bad. For example, Draft Kings might offer to match your initial deposit up to $500, but require a 3x rollover. So, to cash out your free $500, you must place at least $1500 in wagers. There are several ways to optimize this, but the best thing you can do is have some fun with it. Bet sides that you like, and hope to win.

    I recommend taking advantage of every sign up bonus and promotion that's available to you if you have the free cash to deposit. This can serve to double (or more) your bankroll up front. It also contributes to the second point pretty nicely.

2. Shop around for the best price

    If you've followed step 1, you now have money in a bunch of books (or "outs" as people also say), and hopefully more than you deposited with all those bonuses.

    The odds on the same game differ around at different books. Most of the time, the difference is small, but small differences add up over time. And sometimes those differences are actually pretty big.

    Here's a trivial example of price shopping: Team A is playing Team B. One book has them at -110/-110 on the money line, and another book has them -130/Even. If you have access to both books, you're effectively betting into a market of -110/Even. Just by having one extra sportsbook, you cut the house edge built into the market from 4.55% to 2.33%. 

    Or, in an even juicier example, imagine there's a third book that has -145/+115. Now you can bet both sides of the game and lock in a guaranteed win. This sort of arbitrage opportunity doesn't happen often, but it just illustrates the power of multiple outs.

    Tired of checking 7 different apps and three different websites for the best price? For us casuals, BetStamp is an awesome app that shows lines from a ton of different books. For the pros out there, there's Don Best, which has almost every book in the world, but also costs $500+/month.

3. Avoid parlays, or at least make them work for you

    Parlays are always a favorite of recreational bettors. Guess all NFL games correctly against the spread in a weekend and get paid 175 to 1. But here's the thing: parlays increase volatility and blow up your betting volume. This doesn't have to be a bad thing. If you have an advantage, you have a bigger advantage by synthetically increasing your volume with parlays. But remember, we're betting into markets that have a 4%+ hold built into them. Parlays just ensure larger amounts of your initial wager go towards that hold, since you're essentially taking any winnings you have and putting them right back into a high hold market.

    So when do parlays make sense (other than when I have a huge advantage anyway)? Correlated parlays! The classic example is betting a team to win the first half, and also the whole game. Sure, not every team winning at half will win the game, but almost every blowout at half turns into a W. These outcomes are positively correlated, so if you get a true pay parlay on something like that, it's potentially profitable. Unfortunately, a lot of books know this too, and keep an eye on what you try to parlay.

4. Size your bets appropriately for your bankroll

    The standard advice is to bet 1% of your bankroll on every bet. For a lot of people, that's just not much money. I would encourage you to choose a reasonable size bet, and stick to it. For me, that's a bet to win $10 on sides/totals, and $5 on props or other small markets. This is probably under betting my bankroll, but it's the perfect amount for me to have fun. And that's what this is all about anyway.

5. Respect the value of a half point

    On spreads and totals, half points matter a lot. It might not seem like there's a big difference between a team at -3 and -3.5. Well, if this is football, that's actually quite a big difference. Around 8-10% of games land on the 3, so getting a -3 instead of -3.5 is a big deal. I know this goes back to Tip #2, but it's so important, it needed to be it's own tip. 

    Every sharp bettor has a chart of the value of every half point for each sport. Now, you might not need that, but it can be worth looking up how often games fall on a certain number when deciding where to place your bets. Which one is better in the NFL: -2.5 -120 or -3 even? I'm not sure off the top of my head, but calculating that will put you miles ahead.

Other Tips and Terminology

    It's tradition and also good form to make bets in multiples that pay round amounts based on the price. Making a spread bet at -110? Bet $11 to win $10. Why? It's easier to do the math, and when you win, they don't hand you a bunch of coins. No one likes coins in a casino. I understand a lot of people bet on mobile now. I don't care. This is a hill I will die on.

    The favorite is also referred to as "the chalk" or just "chalk". Back in the day, the big board was written in chalk with the spread written on the favorite side (e.g. -3, rather than writing +3).

    Sportsbooks and outs are terms that are used interchangeably when talking about places that will take your action.

    If you haven't been to a sportsbook counter before, it's worth going when they're less busy and asking any questions that might come up. Check your tickets before you leave the counter. If you go when it is busy, know the numbers of the bets you want to make and have your cash ready. They might bark at you the way craps dealers do, but I can assure you, it's not personal.

    I don't know why this is the case, but old timers always add "the" in front of sports names. As in, "he comes in here every Saturday and bets the football" or "all she every does is bet the tennis". It's weird.

    Don't trust anyone who tells you they can give you winning picks. They can't. If they could, they would just find a way to bet those picks and win the money themselves. Typically, these people are called "touts" for touting their picks. 

Further Reading/Listening/Watching

    The book "The Logic of Sports Betting" by Matt Davidow and Ed Miller is pretty great. It covers a ton of stuff about how betting prices are created, and some strategies for winning more often. "Then One Day ...: 40 Years of Bookmaking in Nevada" by Chris Andrews is a great book by a legendary bookmaker. It's more focused on storytelling, but it's also great for learning about the business.

    I recommend a couple podcasts. For more fun listening, Bet the Process is pretty great (although the earlier episodes are better for actual info). For technical market analysis and industry criticism, Be Better Bettors is pretty informational.

    And Captain Jack Andrews' youtube channel has a ton of great info. You can find it here